Thursday, January 24, 2008

Why I Chose Cate Blanchett in the Oscars

Because I believe in probability and there is a study made by sociologists Nicole Esparza of Harvard University and Gabriel Rossman of the University of California, Los Angeles using the Internet Movie Database (yes, the IMDB which you surf for a chance that you will find your name there) for every Oscar-eligible film made between the founding of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences in 1927 and 2005.
They said that an Oscar nod can be ascertained before the cameras whirred.
So one unsurprising thing, you make them laugh? Sorry. You have nine times more chances if you make them cry. No chance at all if you wanted to make them cry but the audience ended up laughing.
The studies next observation is so obvious: the fewer movies shown, the bigger your chance to be nominated. Actresses were more than twice as likely to be nominated as actors for any given performance, so Dustin Hoffman in Tootsie had it so good. But the real reason is still probability: there were fewer roles for women.
Now the billing factor.
"Actors and actresses were also more likely to receive a nomination if they had a history of being named at the top of the credits, had been nominated for an Oscar before or if they appeared with previously nominated writers and directors."
So there: Cate Blanchett.

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